The numbers are in, and it’s not even close…
Global Box Office Sales (as of 8/5):
Barbie - $852M
Oppenheimer - $439M
A few weeks ago EVERYONE was talking about Barbie vs. Oppenheimer.
All the talk around these movies would have you thinking these movies would have a close battle at the box office, but Oppenheimer never even stood a chance.
And here’s why (for the sake of the argument, let’s assume both movies are equally good):
1. Nostalgia - Barbie was founded in 1959, and the Barbie brand has averaged over $1.1 billion in annual sales for the last 10 years.
Barbie has 64 years of impressions, experiences, and history built with their customers. Everyone knows the Barbie brand.
On the other hand, although of great historical significance, J. Robert Oppenheimer doesn’t have the same brand awareness in popular culture. Oppenheimer’s box office sales are driven by the personal brand of Christopher Nolan.
Fans of Nolan may look forward to his next feature, but there isn’t a nostalgia factor at play here for Oppenheimer.
2. Broader Access - There are 34 PG-13 movies that have grossed over a billion dollars worldwide at the box office compared to only 1 rated R movie (Joker).
It would be interesting to see the average number of tickets per order for each movie (not sure if this metrics is available).
My money is that Barbie’s average quantity is significantly higher because families can go together with the kids and high schoolers could go on their own with friends. Whereas with Oppenheimer even if your parents are willing to bring you to watch a rated R movie, most high schoolers would rather stay home then go to the movies with their parents.
3. Licensing - A lot of articles have covered Barbie’s incredible marketing campaign. Barbie was everywhere, all year.
The real marketing advantage Barbie has is the ability to license their brand and products to an incredibly wide array of consumers who already have positive associations with the Barbie brand. Mattel partnered with over 30 brands on Barbie collaborations.
What kind of kind of brand partnerships would make sense for Oppenheimer?
The Department of Defense?
Theoretical physics departments at universities?
The options of paying customers that already have existing associations with Oppenheimer are much, much more limited.
Although Oppenheimer had an excellent story, star studded cast, and a legendary director, there was no way it could compete with Barbie’s nostalgia, broader access, and strategic licensing deals.